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Risk

Name what could derail the project, and decide how you would respond before it happens. Keep a short, living register rather than a thick document no one reads.

Where the risks sit​

  • Ecological: drought, fire, pests and disease, planting failure. Fire in particular drives site and species choices in dry regions (fire-resilient forests in Iberia, news). European summers are trending hotter and drier, which sharpens both (Europe's new heat normal, news). These risks compound: in Germany's Harz mountains, successive droughts and heatwaves opened the way for a bark-beetle outbreak that killed two-thirds of the trees in parts of the range (Germany's dying forests ✓, news).
  • Financial: funding falling short, costs running over, income arriving slower than hoped.
  • Operational: founder burnout, too little time, missing skills.
  • Legal and site: losing access, permit problems, contamination found late. Success doesn't protect you: a celebrated forest garden in Devon, built over 31 years on leased land, was given a year's notice to leave (forest garden loses its lease ✓, news).
  • External: climate extremes, policy shifts, market changes. The climate also moves the target: depending on the region, a third to a half of Europe's tree species today will not cope with conditions later this century (few tree species fit for the future ✓, news).

How to handle each​

For each real risk, note how likely it is, how much it would hurt, your response (avoid, reduce, accept, or pass it on), and a signal to watch for. Review the list on a regular cycle.

Be honest about which risks are large. For a small project the everyday threats, money running out and the founders wearing down, usually matter more than dramatic but rare events.