Financial Projections - Adaptive Framework
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Financial Planning Philosophy
Core Principle: Multiple pathways to financial viability, flexible to opportunities and constraints as they emerge.
What This Document Provides:
- ✅ Multiple financial scenarios based on different funding/timeline pathways
- ✅ Honest uncertainty ranges (not false precision)
- ✅ Clear decision criteria for choosing between scenarios
- ✅ Trigger events that shift projections
- ✅ Backup plans if primary scenario fails
What This Document Does NOT Provide:
- ❌ Single "guaranteed" financial projection
- ❌ Overly precise numbers (€25,273 for Year 3)
- ❌ Fixed timeline assumptions
- ❌ Commitments to specific revenue streams before proven
Financial Projections: Adaptive Framework
Vision: Achieve financial viability for 1-hectare restoration site through combination of initial capital raise, early revenue development, and path to sustainability by Year 5-7.
Core Requirements (non-negotiable financial constraints):
- Minimum €8,000 to establish minimal viable site (lease + basic setup)
- No debt/loans (bootstrap approach, founders maintain control)
- Founders maintain financial security (keep jobs until project generates €30-50k/year stable)
- Operating reserve of 3-6 months expenses at all times
- Transparent financial reporting to supporters
Scenario A: Fast Track (6-9 Months to Operation)
Overview: Major funding secured upfront (€20-30k), founders can go full-time or near-full-time, rapid deployment.
Probability: 10-20% (requires everything aligning well)
Best if:
- Major grant awarded (€20-50k)
- Successful crowdfunding campaign (€20-30k in first 3 months)
- Angel donor/patron commits significant funds
- Can leave jobs or go part-time quickly
Fast Track Financial Projection
| Period | Investment | Revenue | Net Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months 1-6 | €20-30k | €0 | €20-30k | Rapid setup: land, housing, infrastructure all at once |
| Year 1 | €5-10k | €0-2k | €5-8k | Operations, expanded planting |
| Year 2 | €8-15k | €3-8k | €5-10k | Infrastructure improvements, early revenue |
| Year 3 | €10-18k | €8-15k | €2-10k | Revenue ramp-up, approaching viability |
| Year 4 | €12-20k | €15-30k | €0-5k | Revenue covers most/all costs |
| Year 5 | €15-25k | €25-45k | Break-even to +€20k surplus | Financial sustainability achieved |
| TOTAL (5 years) | €70-118k | €51-100k | €32-63k net funding needed |
Cumulative Funding Required: €32-63k over 5 years (€20-30k upfront + €12-33k over Years 1-5)
Trigger Events to Shift to This Scenario:
- €20k+ grant awarded → Move to Fast Track immediately
- Crowdfunding raises €25k+ in first 30 days → Accelerate deployment
- Significant angel donor commits → Fast Track viable
Key Assumptions:
- Full upfront capital available (€20-30k)
- Founders can dedicate 30-40+ hr/week from Month 1
- Land secured within 2-3 months
- Early research partnerships (Year 2)
- Revenue streams develop faster
Risks:
- High upfront funding difficult to secure
- Founders may not be able to leave jobs
- Revenue assumptions may be optimistic
Scenario B: Gradual Build (12-18 Months to Operation) - BASELINE
Overview: Part-time work model, crowdfunding or small grants over time, organic development.
Probability: 50-60% (realistic, achievable baseline)
Best if:
- Building gradually while maintaining jobs
- Crowdfunding €15-20k over 4-6 months
- Testing approach before full commitment
- Want to maintain financial security
Gradual Build Financial Projection
| Period | Investment | Revenue | Net Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months 1-6 | €5-10k | €0 | €5-10k | Prep phase: planning, networking, audience building |
| Months 7-12 | €15-25k | €0-1k | €15-24k | Land acquisition, basic infrastructure, housing |
| Year 2 | €12-20k | €2-6k | €10-18k | Expanded plantings, improvements, early revenue |
| Year 3 | €10-18k | €5-12k | €5-15k | Continued development, revenue growing |
| Year 4 | €12-20k | €12-25k | €0-8k | Revenue approaching cost coverage |
| Year 5 | €15-25k | €20-40k | Break-even to +€15k surplus | Sustainable operations |
| TOTAL (5 years) | €69-118k | €39-84k | €35-75k net funding needed |
Cumulative Funding Required: €35-75k over 5 years (spread gradually, not all upfront)
Funding Timeline:
- Months 1-6: €5-10k (prep, initial costs)
- Months 7-12: €15-25k (main capital raise via crowdfunding/grants)
- Year 2: €10-18k (operations + improvements)
- Years 3-5: €17-58k (decreasing external funding need as revenue grows)
Trigger Events to Shift FROM This Scenario:
- Accelerate to Scenario A if: Major funding opportunity emerges Month 3-6
- Decelerate to Scenario C if: Crowdfunding underperforms, need more time
Key Assumptions:
- Part-time work model Year 1-2 (15-25 hr/week)
- Crowdfunding €15-20k over 6 months (Months 4-9)
- Small grants €3-8k/year Years 1-3
- Transition to more time Year 3-4 (25-35 hr/week)
- Revenue develops gradually, conservative projections
Why This is Baseline:
- Realistic funding timeline (not requiring huge upfront raise)
- Maintains founder financial security (keep jobs)
- Allows testing and learning
- Flexible to accelerate or decelerate
- Achievable with moderate community support
Scenario C: Slow & Steady (24-36 Months to Operation)
Overview: Ultra-lean bootstrap, founders contribute €8-12k/year from jobs, very part-time, maximum security.
Probability: 70-80% (highly achievable, lowest risk)
Best if:
- Risk-averse, want maximum security
- Don't want fundraising stress
- Patient, willing to build slowly
- Testing concept thoroughly before scaling
Slow & Steady Financial Projection
| Period | Investment | Revenue | Net Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | €8-12k | €0 | €8-12k | Lease land, minimal setup, founder contributions |
| Year 2 | €8-15k | €0-2k | €8-13k | Gradual improvements, basic plantings |
| Year 3 | €10-18k | €2-5k | €8-16k | Continued development, early revenue experiments |
| Year 4 | €12-20k | €5-12k | €7-15k | Infrastructure upgrades, revenue growing |
| Year 5 | €12-22k | €10-20k | €2-12k | Approaching viability |
| Year 6-7 | €15-25k | €20-40k | Break-even to +€15k surplus | Sustainability achieved |
| TOTAL (6-7 years) | €65-112k | €37-79k | €33-83k net funding needed |
Cumulative Funding Required: €33-83k over 6-7 years (€8-15k/year average, very manageable)
Funding Sources:
- Founder contributions: €8-12k/year from jobs (primary)
- Small crowdfunding: €2-5k/year (supplemental)
- Micro-grants: €1-3k/year (opportunistic)
- Friends & family: €2-5k total over years (one-time gifts)
Trigger Events to Shift FROM This Scenario:
- Accelerate to Scenario B if: Unexpected funding opportunity Year 2-3
- Accelerate to Scenario A if: Major grant/windfall Year 1-2
Key Assumptions:
- Very part-time (10-15 hr/week Year 1-3)
- Founders maintain full-time jobs throughout
- Minimal external fundraising (avoid stress/complexity)
- Self-reliant, patient approach
- Revenue development delayed but steady
Why This Works:
- No fundraising pressure or timeline
- Founders stay financially secure
- Can pause/resume as life allows
- Proves model thoroughly before scaling
- Fallback if all other scenarios fail
Constraints:
- Slower progress (6-7 years to sustainability vs 5 years)
- Limited scope Year 1-3
- Requires sustained founder commitment
- Revenue development delayed
Scenario D: Opportunity-Driven (Variable Timeline)
Overview: Major opportunity emerges that changes entire financial trajectory.
Probability: 20-30% (unpredictable but possible)
Examples of Trigger Opportunities:
D1: Partnership/Collaboration Model
- Trigger: Landowner offers free land + university funds research setup
- Impact: Reduces capital needs by €10-20k (land cost eliminated)
- Timeline: Could accelerate to 6-9 months
- Financial: Investment reduced to €15-25k total Year 1
D2: Major Grant/Prize Award
- Trigger: €30-50k grant awarded (DBU, EU LIFE, prize competition)
- Impact: Funds entire Year 1-2 setup
- Timeline: Accelerate to Fast Track (Scenario A)
- Financial: Minimal additional funding needed for 2-3 years
D3: Corporate/NGO Sponsorship
- Trigger: Company/NGO commits €15-30k + ongoing support
- Impact: Capital + credibility + network
- Timeline: Could accelerate deployment significantly
- Financial: Reduced fundraising stress, focus on execution
D4: Land Donation/Gifted
- Trigger: Someone gifts land or extremely cheap access (<€5k)
- Impact: €8-30k saved on land acquisition
- Timeline: Skip land search, accelerate to setup
- Financial: Redirect land budget to infrastructure/improvements
Current Status: Actively exploring opportunities, networking, monitoring for triggers
Decision Process When Opportunity Emerges:
- Does it meet core requirements (security, control, mission alignment)?
- What's the total commitment/timeline required?
- Which scenario does it most align with (A, B, or C)?
- What are hidden costs/constraints?
- Decide within 1-2 weeks, don't overanalyze
Decision Criteria: Choosing Between Scenarios
Use these questions to determine which scenario you're in:
1. Funding Availability
- Scenario A: €20-30k available within 3 months (grant, crowdfunding success, donor)
- Scenario B: €15-25k achievable over 6-9 months (crowdfunding campaign, small grants)
- Scenario C: €8-12k/year from founder contributions (no major external raise)
- Scenario D: Major opportunity emerges that changes equation
2. Time Availability
- Scenario A: Can go full-time or 30-40+ hr/week immediately
- Scenario B: Part-time 15-25 hr/week Year 1-2, increasing Year 3+
- Scenario C: Very part-time 10-15 hr/week, maintain full-time jobs indefinitely
- Scenario D: Depends on opportunity requirements
3. Risk Tolerance
- Scenario A: Higher risk (leave jobs, commit fully), higher reward (faster results)
- Scenario B: Moderate risk (part-time transition), moderate pace
- Scenario C: Lowest risk (maximum security), slower pace
- Scenario D: Variable risk depending on opportunity
4. Timeline Urgency
- Scenario A: Need/want results within 12-18 months
- Scenario B: Comfortable with 18-30 months to viability
- Scenario C: Patient, willing to take 4-7 years
- Scenario D: Driven by opportunity timing
5. Fundraising Preference
- Scenario A: Willing to pursue major fundraising (grants, large campaigns)
- Scenario B: Moderate fundraising effort (crowdfunding, small grants)
- Scenario C: Minimal fundraising (avoid stress, bootstrap)
- Scenario D: Opportunity presents funding or reduces funding needs
Current Financial Status & Plan
Phase: Planning and opportunity exploration (Month 0)
Confirmed Decisions:
- ✅ Bootstrap approach (no debt/loans)
- ✅ Maintain founder financial security (keep jobs until €30-50k/year stable)
- ✅ Minimum viable investment: €8,000 (can start with this if needed)
- ✅ Target range: €8-30k Year 1 depending on pathway chosen
- ✅ Work model: Part-time Year 1-2 (15-25 hr/week baseline)
TBD - Decision by Month 4-6:
- Primary funding pathway (crowdfunding vs grants vs bootstrap vs partnership)
- Which scenario we're targeting (A, B, C, or D)
- Timeline (6-9mo vs 12-18mo vs 24-36mo)
- Total budget commitment (€8-12k minimal vs €20-30k standard)
Current Approach (Months 1-4):
-
Explore all funding pathways simultaneously (don't commit to one yet)
- Research grants (Germany, Portugal, EU)
- Prep crowdfunding (build audience, develop campaign)
- Network for partnerships/opportunities
- Calculate founder contribution capacity
-
Month 3-4: Evaluate results
- Which pathway showing most promise?
- What funding level looks realistic?
- What timeline makes sense given above?
-
Month 4-6: Commit to scenario
- Choose Scenario A, B, C, or pursue D if opportunity emerged
- Finalize budget and financial projections
- Execute on chosen pathway
Default Plan: Assume Scenario B (Gradual Build) as baseline unless triggers shift to A, C, or D
Financial Projections by Category
Capital Investment (One-Time Costs)
Year 1 Capital Needs - Range by Scenario:
| Category | Minimal (Scenario C) | Standard (Scenario B) | Comprehensive (Scenario A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land | €1-3k lease deposit | €8-15k purchase OR €1-3k lease | €10-25k purchase |
| Housing | €3-8k used caravan | €8-15k tiny house/caravan | €12-25k quality tiny house |
| Solar/Power | €800-2k minimal | €3-5k basic | €8-12k full system |
| Water System | €300-800 IBC tanks | €1-3k tanks + filtration | €3-6k comprehensive |
| Tools/Equipment | €500-1.5k basic | €1.5-3k standard | €3-5k quality new |
| Initial Plantings | €500-1k seeds/starter | €1-3k mix | €3-5k comprehensive |
| Site Infrastructure | €500-1.5k minimal | €2-4k standard | €4-8k professional |
| Legal/Admin | €200-500 informal | €500-2k entity formation | €1-3k gGmbH + legal |
| Contingency | €1-2k | €2-4k | €4-8k |
| TOTAL YEAR 1 | €7-20k | €28-52k | €48-102k |
Most Likely Ranges:
- Scenario C: €8-15k (ultra-lean)
- Scenario B: €20-35k (balanced)
- Scenario A: €30-50k (comprehensive)
Deferred Until Location/Site Selected: Exact specifications, suppliers, installation approach
Annual Operating Costs (Recurring)
Operating Cost Projections - Range by Scenario:
| Category | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internet/Utilities | €500-1.5k | €800-2k | €1-2.5k | €1.5-3k | €2-3.5k |
| Site Maintenance | €300-1k | €500-2k | €1-3k | €1.5-3.5k | €2-4k |
| Plantings/Materials | €500-2k | €1-4k | €2-5k | €2-5k | €2-5k |
| Insurance | €200-500 | €300-800 | €500-1.2k | €600-1.5k | €800-2k |
| Documentation/Marketing | €200-800 | €500-1.5k | €800-2.5k | €1-3k | €1.5-4k |
| Equipment Replacement | €200-500 | €300-1k | €500-1.5k | €800-2k | €1-2.5k |
| Professional Services | €0-500 | €200-1k | €500-2k | €1-3k | €2-5k |
| Guest/Workshop Costs | €0 | €0-500 | €500-2k | €1-3k | €2-5k |
| Miscellaneous | €500-1.5k | €800-2k | €1-2.5k | €1.5-3k | €2-3.5k |
| TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING | €2.4-8.3k | €4.4-14.8k | €7.3-22.2k | €10.9-26.5k | €15.8-34.5k |
Most Likely Operating Costs:
- Year 1: €4-6k (minimal operations)
- Year 2: €8-12k (expanding operations)
- Year 3: €12-18k (active operations)
- Year 4: €15-22k (revenue-generating activities)
- Year 5+: €20-30k (full operations + workshops/tourism)
Key Variables:
- Location (Portugal cheaper than Germany for many costs)
- Activity level (more workshops = higher costs)
- Growth rate (expanding faster = higher costs)
- Revenue activities (eco-tourism adds costs and revenue)
Revenue Projections (Conservative → Optimistic)
Revenue Development Timeline - Range by Scenario:
| Revenue Stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Partnerships | €0-1k | €1-4k | €3-8k | €6-12k | €10-20k |
| Workshops/Training | €0 | €0-1k | €1-4k | €3-8k | €5-15k |
| Donations (ongoing) | €0-1k | €1-3k | €2-5k | €3-7k | €4-10k |
| Small Grants | €0-5k | €2-8k | €3-10k | €3-10k | €3-10k |
| Eco-Tourism | €0 | €0 | €0-1k | €1-4k | €3-10k |
| Consulting/Advisory | €0 | €0-500 | €500-2k | €1-3k | €2-5k |
| TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUE | €0-7k | €4-17k | €9-30k | €17-44k | €27-70k |
Most Likely Revenue:
- Year 1: €0-2k (not expected or relied upon)
- Year 2: €2-6k (early experiments)
- Year 3: €5-15k (starting to develop)
- Year 4: €12-28k (growing steadily)
- Year 5+: €20-45k (approaching viability)
Key Assumptions:
- Research partnerships primary revenue source (most aligned with mission)
- Workshops/training secondary (requires time/infrastructure investment)
- Donations ongoing supplemental (not primary strategy)
- Grants decreasing over time (not relied on long-term)
- Eco-tourism delayed until Year 3-4 (infrastructure requirements)
Sensitivity Analysis:
- Conservative case (lower end of ranges): Sustainability by Year 6-7
- Base case (middle of ranges): Sustainability by Year 5-6
- Optimistic case (upper end of ranges): Sustainability by Year 4-5
What We're NOT Projecting (too uncertain or not viable):
- ❌ Energy sales (off-grid system, not grid-connected)
- ❌ Carbon credits (verification costs too high for small site)
- ❌ Commercial agriculture (conflicts with restoration mission)
- ❌ Large-scale eco-tourism (requires major investment, permitting)
Cumulative Financial Summary (5-7 Year Horizon)
Net Funding Requirements by Scenario
Scenario A (Fast Track - 5 years to sustainability):
- Total Investment: €70-118k
- Total Revenue: €51-100k
- Net Funding Needed: €32-63k
- Timeline: Sustainable by Year 5
Scenario B (Gradual Build - 5 years to sustainability):
- Total Investment: €69-118k
- Total Revenue: €39-84k
- Net Funding Needed: €35-75k
- Timeline: Sustainable by Year 5-6
Scenario C (Slow & Steady - 6-7 years to sustainability):
- Total Investment: €65-112k
- Total Revenue: €37-79k
- Net Funding Needed: €33-83k
- Timeline: Sustainable by Year 6-7
Scenario D (Opportunity-Driven - variable):
- Highly dependent on specific opportunity
- Could reduce net funding needs by €10-40k if right opportunity emerges
- Timeline: Variable (3-24 months depending on opportunity)
What "Sustainability" Means
Break-Even Point: Annual revenue ≥ annual operating costs
- Revenue: €20-35k/year
- Operating costs: €20-30k/year
- Achieved: Year 5-7 depending on scenario
Founders Can Go Full-Time: Project generates €30-50k/year stable
- Covers 1-2 founder salaries at modest level
- Achieved: Year 6-8+ (beyond initial bootstrap phase)
Surplus for Expansion: Revenue exceeds costs by €10-30k/year
- Can reinvest in site improvements or second site
- Achieved: Year 7-10+ (network expansion phase)
Trigger Events & Decision Points
Triggers to Accelerate (Shift from C→B or B→A):
Financial Triggers
- €20k+ grant awarded → Consider Fast Track (Scenario A)
- Crowdfunding exceeds €25k → Accelerate deployment
- Major donor commits €15k+ → Shift up one scenario level
- Partnership eliminates major cost (free land, etc.) → Accelerate
Opportunity Triggers
- Perfect land offer at exceptional price → Secure immediately, may allow acceleration
- Research institution offers multi-year funding → Consider Fast Track
- Corporate sponsorship secured → Depending on amount, shift scenarios
- Prize/competition won (€10k+) → Accelerate based on amount
Readiness Triggers
- Founders can go full-time or 30+ hr/week → Opens Fast Track possibility
- Strong community built (500+ engaged followers) → Crowdfunding more likely to succeed
- Location/site secured faster than expected → May enable acceleration
Triggers to Decelerate (Shift from B→C or A→B):
Financial Triggers
- Crowdfunding underperforms (<€10k) → Shift to Slow & Steady
- Grants not materializing → Fall back to bootstrap
- Unexpected expenses emerge → Slow down, reassess
- Founder financial situation changes → May need to decelerate
Personal Triggers
- Health/family circumstances limit time → Shift to Slow & Steady
- Job situation requires more focus → Reduce project time commitment
- Burnout risk detected → Decelerate to sustainable pace
External Triggers
- Location decision taking longer than expected → Delays capital deployment
- Regulatory/permitting complications → Timeline extension needed
- Economic downturn affecting fundraising → Conservative approach warranted
Decision Protocol:
- Months 1-3: Monitor all triggers, explore all scenarios
- Month 3-4: Evaluate which scenario is most realistic based on what materialized
- Month 4-6: Commit to scenario and execute
- Ongoing: Re-evaluate quarterly, willing to shift scenarios if major triggers occur
Financial Assumptions & Sensitivities
Key Assumptions Underlying All Scenarios
Funding Assumptions:
- Crowdfunding success rate: 25-40% for environmental projects
- Grant success rate: 10-20% for small environmental grants
- Donor retention: 40-60% year-over-year
- Founder contribution capacity: €8-15k/year from jobs
Cost Assumptions:
- Inflation: 3-5%/year on operating costs
- Equipment lifespan: Solar 15-20 years, tools 5-10 years, housing 20-30 years
- Maintenance: 5-10% of capital value per year
- Contingency: 10-20% buffer for unexpected costs
Revenue Assumptions:
- Research partnership growth: 1-3 active partnerships by Year 3-5
- Workshop attendance: 20-50 people/year by Year 4-5
- Pricing: Conservative (not premium pricing)
- Ramp-up: Slow/steady (not hockey stick growth)
Geographic Assumptions:
- Germany costs: Land €15-30k, living €15-30k/year (founders)
- Portugal costs: Land €5-15k, living €10-18k/year (founders)
- Operating costs similar across EU (internet, solar, etc.)
Sensitivity Analysis: What If Key Assumptions Wrong?
If Crowdfunding Raises 50% Less Than Expected (€8k vs €16k):
- Impact: Delay land purchase 3-6 months OR choose lease vs buy
- Mitigation: Shift from Scenario B to Scenario C
- Critical: Not project-ending, just slower
If Research Revenue 50% Lower Than Projected:
- Impact: Sustainability delayed 1-2 years (Year 6-7 vs Year 5)
- Mitigation: Increase workshop/training focus OR accept longer timeline
- Critical: Not project-ending, adjust expectations
If Operating Costs 30% Higher Than Projected:
- Impact: Need €25-40k/year revenue vs €20-30k for sustainability
- Mitigation: Develop additional revenue streams OR reduce scope
- Critical: Manageable with adjustments
If Land Costs Double (€30k vs €15k in Germany):
- Impact: Need additional €15k upfront OR choose lease vs buy
- Mitigation: Shift to Portugal, lease vs buy, or bootstrap slower
- Critical: Not project-ending, location/acquisition flexibility
If Founders Can't Contribute (€0 vs €8-12k/year):
- Impact: Must rely entirely on external funding
- Mitigation: Focus on Scenario A or B, not C
- Critical: Harder but not impossible, requires stronger fundraising
What Financial Success Looks Like
Year 1 Success Metrics
Funding Achievement:
- ✅ Raised €8-30k (depending on scenario chosen)
- ✅ Secured land (purchased or lease agreement)
- ✅ Established 3-6 month operating reserve
- ✅ Zero debt (bootstrap principle maintained)
Infrastructure Achievement:
- ✅ Housing operational (livable year-round)
- ✅ Off-grid systems functional (solar, water)
- ✅ Basic tools and equipment acquired
- ✅ Initial plantings completed (100-300 trees)
Financial Systems:
- ✅ Transparent accounting system established
- ✅ Donor/supporter reporting process in place
- ✅ Budget tracking and adjustment process working
- ✅ Financial projections updated based on actual results
Year 3 Success Metrics
Funding Achievement:
- ✅ Cumulative funding €35-70k (across scenarios)
- ✅ Diversified funding sources (not reliant on single source)
- ✅ Early revenue streams established (€5-15k/year)
- ✅ Operating reserve maintained
Revenue Development:
- ✅ 1-2 research partnerships active (€3-8k/year)
- ✅ Workshop program launched (€1-4k/year)
- ✅ Ongoing donor base established (€2-5k/year)
- ✅ Revenue covers 30-60% of operating costs
Financial Sustainability Progress:
- ✅ Clear path to sustainability by Year 5-7
- ✅ Revenue growth trajectory established
- ✅ Operating costs stable and predictable
- ✅ Founder financial security maintained (still employed)
Year 5-7 Success Metrics (Sustainability Achieved)
Revenue Achievement:
- ✅ Annual revenue €20-45k (range by scenario)
- ✅ Revenue covers 100%+ of operating costs
- ✅ Multiple revenue streams (not single-source dependent)
- ✅ Revenue predictable and stable
Cost Management:
- ✅ Operating costs stable at €20-30k/year
- ✅ Capital improvements self-funded from surplus
- ✅ Contingency reserves robust (6-12 months)
- ✅ Low overhead (<20% admin/indirect costs)
Path Forward:
- ✅ Option to expand to second site OR stay at 1ha and intensify
- ✅ Founders can transition to full-time if desired (not required)
- ✅ Model proven and documented for replication
- ✅ Financial independence from constant fundraising
Related Documents
Financial Planning:
- Business Model & Revenue Streams - Detailed revenue stream analysis
- Funding Strategy - Specific funding pathway details
Cost Details:
- Technology Costs - Solar, water, monitoring systems
- Housing Costs - Living infrastructure details
- Land Acquisition Costs - Land purchase/lease analysis
Timeline & Operations:
- Timeline & Phasing - How timeline affects financial projections
- Daily Operations - Operating cost drivers
Performance & Risk:
- Financial KPIs - Tracking financial performance
- Financial Risk Management - Risk scenarios and mitigation
Adaptation Notes
This financial projection document is adaptive:
- Projections will update based on actual results (quarterly review)
- Scenario choice made Month 4-6 based on funding reality
- Revenue projections adjusted based on Year 1-2 actual performance
- Operating costs updated based on site selection and actual expenses
- Willing to shift scenarios if major opportunities or constraints emerge
Honest uncertainty:
- We cannot predict exact revenue in Year 5 (range: €20-70k)
- We don't know which funding pathway will work best (exploring all)
- We don't know final location (affects costs significantly)
- We don't know founder time availability in Year 3+ (life circumstances)
What we DO know:
- Minimum viable investment: €8,000 (can start with this)
- Maximum realistic need: €75-85k over 5-7 years (cumulative)
- Sustainability achievable: Year 5-7 with revenue €20-45k/year
- Multiple pathways exist: Not dependent on single scenario working
Current status: Month 0 - Exploring all scenarios, will commit to pathway Month 4-6 based on what emerges.
Status: Active
Document Version: 2025.11 (2025.11.13 01:56) Part of: Strategic Documentation Category: Plan Type: Strategic Planning Document Status: Active